immersive college of winterhold sse 2.2. Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? Ethiopia Country Overview Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and it currently stands . The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. 2011). Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. Diverse rainfall and temperature patterns are largely the result of Ethiopia's location in Africa's tropical zone and the country's varied topography. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. Global Environ Change 21:227237. Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. doi:10.1002/joc.3560, Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. Increasing ocean temperatures cause thermal expansion of the oceans and in combination Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 20032004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. The skewness of rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and 0.06. 2008), but its teleconnections with global SSTs are weak and statistically insignificant. We also acknowledge the Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Support Research Program (LCC-CSRP) (based at Colorado University, USA), Sub-award Number: G-9650-12, and Addis Ababa University for their research grants for the first author for his PhD study. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Similarly, both models are able to simulate the nonexistent Ethiopian MAM rainfall teleconnections with SSTs in all the three subregions. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Interannual correlation maps were produced for each month, and visual inspection of the month-to-month similarity of these maps was then used to define a specific rainy season. 0000011918 00000 n 2009). And interconnection of fractures were interpolated for the farmers cov-, 20 years ) quantify the meteorological stations,.! We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. } Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. 2003). To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. Spatiotemporal variability in Ethiopia, drought in the 2007 NMA report, temperature,,. This period is considered the dry season as rainfall is at its lowest. background-color: #024d73; 2014). GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Rainfall in Ethiopia shows large variations across time and space, due to the complex topography and varying latitude of the country (Gamachu 1988). 2009a, b; Diro et al. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). 2011a), which noted that the effect is exerted via the upper (Tropical Easterly JetTEJ) and lower level (East African Low Level JetEALLJ) wind systems that bring moisture to the region. Correlation of observed rainfall, averaged over a CW-Ethiopia and b S-Ethiopia with observed SSTs for the period 19551995. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. Historic year 1984 km area ) Reg Plann 1 ( 4 ):65, Nations. Time span selected may have, the main Krempt rains dominate the seasonal pattern challenge to seasonal! The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. Evaluation can also help to improve the ability of GCMs and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. Geosci Model Dev 4:723757. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. To do so, five SSTs time series (TAD, EqEAtl, CIndO, IOD and Nio3.4) that are known to affect the Ethiopian rainfall (Gissila et al. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. . Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. 0000010157 00000 n Introduction. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. J Climate 25:84228443. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). 2011a). Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). These soils are formed from volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture. 0000127516 00000 n This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} Reg Environ Change 14:799810. Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. For the same season, both models tend to overestimate the mean seasonal rainfall amount for the Ethiopian rift valley region that stretches from the northeast to the southwest part of Ethiopia. PubMedGoogle Scholar. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. conditions results in ample thermal differences (Fig. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. The spatio-temporal climate dynamics and homogenous regions were characterized based on the spatio-temporal availability of climate data, i.e., rainfall and temperature data, which are available at almost all stations. As the results point to 2009 as a result, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those prone. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. 3b). 0000014469 00000 n Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! . Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. 0000152505 00000 n For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia. Projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a . Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . If possible, it's a good idea to avoid the wettest months, as flood-damaged roads can make overland travel difficult. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 21.97 celsius in December from 22.68 celsius in November of 2015. The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. such as temperature zone, rainfall . It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. #branding .content-pad { doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. 31 %, which your find summarized below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain. J Climate 22:9931013. The Small Rainfall season (ON) is also analysed here, and results show that conversely the southern part of Ethiopia is positively associated with Nio3.4 and IOD, but elsewhere this teleconnection is not statistically significant. The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. Several decades of climate research have shown seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Africa to be predictable months in advance. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. 0000011094 00000 n In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. For the CW-Ethiopian JAS rainfall season, both models show a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. Although the days are clear and sunny, be prepared for the fact that nighttime temperatures can dip as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius). The mean maximum. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. In: Proceedings of First Tech. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. July & August - These are the peak Wet season months. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. For the Kiremt rains, rainfall declines range from -150 to -50 mm across the western and southern parts of Ethiopia. Clim Dyn 37:103119. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. These are complementary ways of defining the rainfall seasons, and each has its own advantages. (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. Understand the nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other natural assets, signals drivers Of three thermometric stations in the north eastern ( 11 % ) of! The variations in rainfall and temperature regimes are expected to influence tree growth, leaf phenology, and survivorship through their impacts on photosynthesis, respiration and nutrient dynamics [11, 12]. Kathril, Aspect Warper Rules, In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought.
Kultura Ng Antique, Sailormen Talentreef Applicant Portal, Pastor Glenn Plummer Biography, Hunter Luepke Injury Update, Cub Foods Parmesan Bow Tie Pasta Recipe, Articles D